Thursday, February 21, 2013

Per-Member Rating: The Long Cascade



From the perspective of an insurance carrier’s operations, one of the most significant provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is the new individual and small group rating methodology defined by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) under their proposed Health Insurance Market Rules. The change may seem simple—rating individual families and small group plans on the member- rather than subscriber-level—but it creates huge downstream ripples within a carrier’s operations.

We’ll take a look at a lot of those ripples in the future, but let’s start by reviewing the proposed change in rating methodology.

How It (Often) Works Today

Let’s start with rating for individual direct-to-consumer plans. Rating methodologies vary from carrier to carrier, and some states prescribe specific methods, but here’s a typical one.
Rate = (Base Rate * Age Factor * Tier Factor * Health Risk Factor)
In this model, you start with the base rate defined for the product (say, $238 per month) and then adjust it based upon the age of the subscriber, the type of coverage being purchased (e.g. individual coverage or family coverage) and then by a factor based upon the health history of the family—that painful list of dozens of questions beginning “Has anyone applying for coverage been treated for [insert long list of dreadful diseases and conditions here].”

So, suppose you have the following family of four:
            Bill (age 36)
            Sandra (35)
            Mark (10)
            Sarah (8)
           
Bill selects a PPO plan with a base rate of $238.25 per month and fills out an application, including completing the health questionnaire. Because he is 36, Bill is assigned a subscriber age factor of .79, and because he chooses family coverage his contract has a tier factor of 2.68. Based upon some health conditions Sandra and her son Mark have, the carrier’s underwriters assign a health risk factor of 1.1. 

So, Bill’s final rate for family coverage is:
$238.25 * .79 * 2.68 * 1.1
Which equals $554.87 per month.

Note that in this case Sandra's age and the fact that she and Bill have two children do not figure into the equation. The rate is based off the oldest adult (Bill) as well as the fact that they selected family coverage, and the rate would be the same whether they have one child or four. The rate also doesn’t change if they have another child and add coverage for the baby.

How It Will Work in 2014

Under the proposed HHS rule, the rates for Bill’s family will be calculated a little differently starting in 2014. One of the big ACA changes is that rates can no longer be based upon members’ health history, so that health risk factor will go away. Now, only age, tobacco use, and “geolocation” (basically, the county in which the family lives) can be taken into account.

Here’s the kicker. The family rate must now be determined by adding up the rate for each individual family member. The rule also stipulates that no more than three children under the age of 21 can be taken into account. (Any children after the first three can be added for no additional cost.)

So, let’s rate Bill’s family under the new methodology. Bill’s monthly premium will be the sum of the rates for each of the members in his family. Each member’s rate will be calculated as follows:
member rate = (base rate) * (age factor) * (tobacco factor) * (geo factor)
Instead of filling out a lengthy health questionnaire, Bill simply has to indicate whether each person he is covering uses tobacco. In his family’s case, only Bill does. So here’s the calculation:
Bill’s rate = $152.62 * 1.22 * 1.35 = $250.34
Sandra’s rate = $152.62 * 1.18 * 1 = $179.36
Mark’s rate = $152.62 * .635 * 1 = $96.52
Sarah’s rate = $152.62 * .635 * 1 = $96.52
Total Family Rate = $620.62
Now, suppose Bill and Sandra have a third child, Nellie. Under the original rating method, they just add Nellie to their family coverage and their premium stays the same. Under the new rating methodology, Nellie gets rated separately and Bill’s coverage goes up by $96.52.

If they have a fourth child, under the new method, the premium would not increase since only the first 3 family members under 21 are counted.


Small Group Rating

The impact on small group rating is very similar, for the proposed rule does away with former “composite rating” approaches commonly used with groups.

Under composite rating, every employee in the company who purchases a plan pays the same as his or her fellow employees, varying only by the coverage tier selected (e.g. employee only, employee + spouse, employee + children, or employee + family). The rates themselves are determined by the characteristics of the group as a whole, such as average employee age, average employee health risk, geography, and size of the group. The rates for the year are determined during the sales process at the start of the benefit year. If a new employee is hired mid-year, he or she can buy coverage for the same price that his or her new co-workers pay.

That is all going to change under the new proposed rules. Starting in 2014, a group’s total rate is going to be the sum of the rates determined for each employee, and the rate for each employee will be the sum of the rates for family members being covered, just as we saw for Bill in the individual example above. A small business, in other words, will be just a collection of individual families, with each member in the group rated separately.

In other words, if you have a small business with 12 employees, go through the same pricing exercise for each employee like we did for Bill’s family above. Sum those 12 employees together, and you have your total group rate. Hire a new employee mid-year, and that new employee will be rated separately and the total group price will go by whatever that new employee is priced to pay.

I’ll let others debate the merits of the “family unit” approach versus the “build up” approach in terms of fairness, accuracy, and efficiency. From an operational perspective, though, it greatly changes things. We'll take a look next at a few of the challenges it poses to various operational areas within an insurance carrier.

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